EVs not a ‘silver bullet’ solution
https://www.winnipegfreepress.com/opinion/analysis/evs-not-a-silver-bullet-solution-576431282.html
AS governments across the world struggle to meet quickly approaching climate change targets, electric vehicles have begun to find their way into the spotlight. The “Build Back Better” plan in the U.S. and Canada’s 2022 federal budget both focus efforts to decarbonize the transportation sector on incentivizing “zero emission vehicles” (ZEVs).
Transportation is Canada’s second largest source of GHG emissions, responsible for 25 per cent of the country’s total. In cities such as Winnipeg, vehicle tailpipes are the source of half of all emissions.
It is also clear, however, that electric vehicles are not an “easy button” solution to climate change. A 2,000-kilogram machine transporting an 80-kilogram human cargo for almost every trip made outside of the home is not a sustainable solution, regardless of the machine’s power plant.
There are many studies that try to quantify ZEVs’ emissions, and the consistent conclusion is that no car is truly a zero-emission vehicle. For a more complete picture, the current focus on tailpipe emissions must be broadened to include the carbon footprint of all facets of a vehicle’s life cycle.
When factoring in the manufacturing emissions created during raw-materials extraction, production and shipping, as well as emissions from the electrical grid during its use, it has been found that an electric vehicle has about half the overall carbon footprint of a gasoline vehicle.
This is an important reduction that will only improve over time, but threatening to counteract these gains is the fact that every 20 years there are 50 per cent more vehicles on Canadian roads. They are also getting larger, which increases manufacturing emissions, battery sizes and energy use.
Over the last two decades, the share of trucks and SUVs has grown from 30 per cent to 80 per cent.
In our ever-shortening climate-crisis timeline, market absorption also creates a challenge for ZEVs. A new study done at Polytechnique Montréal found that to meet that city’s 2030 emissions reduction targets, more than 60 per cent of vehicles on the road will need to be ZEVs.
Many projections show that even with federal incentives, by 2030 only 11 per cent of vehicles will be electric, with 60 per cent likely not being reached until 2050.
Extensive vehicle electrification is important, but it will only get us part way to our transportation emissions targets. A complete solution will require serious investment in strategies that fundamentally reduce the amount we drive.
Key to this will be investing heavily in alternate forms of transportation, including public transit, to provide convenient mobility alternatives. The focus has been on electrification, but for that to be an effective climate policy, priority should be given to investments that increase ridership.
Electrification of public transit creates headlines, but the environmental benefits of public transit are actually realized when more people get out of their cars and onto a bus. If we made public transit sufficiently attractive to reduce emissions from private vehicles by only two per cent, it would have the same environmental impact as electrifying every transit vehicle in Canada.
More effective policy would fast-track rapid transit construction, significantly increase service frequency and reliability, and provide strong connectivity to make transit effective for everyday use. Most Canadian cities developed around a pervasive streetcar system that was its primary mode of motorized transportation. We can take inspiration from our past and re-establish a public transit system that is no longer an afterthought, but instead is a well-integrated and desirable mobility option for everyone.