Collective response is the best strategy

https://www.winnipegfreepress.com/opinion/analysis/collective-response-is-th...

REMEMBER when we thought schools taking an extra week off at spring break would give us time for the COVID-19 pandemic to pass? It seems laughable in hindsight, but it was not a unique reaction. For decades, we have been racing toward a climate crisis with a similar “It couldn’t happen here” naiveté.

This pandemic could well be a dress rehearsal for the main show, climate change — a far more catastrophic global emergency, with no hope of a vaccine to save us.

The coronavirus has demonstrated that our world is a fragile ecosystem, and when we push it too hard, it breaks. It has proven that a global problem is everyone’s problem. Old tropes, such as the suggestion the climate crisis is the sole responsibility of major polluters like India, China or the United States, no longer fly.

Like tackling a pandemic, the solution to climate change can only be realized through collective response. Global warming has been created through the cumulative effect of billions of small actions, and the only response is an equal number of small solutions.

Canadian cities and provinces will be on the front lines of this effort. To provide context, if Manitoba were a country, it would sit within the top 15 highest per-capita emitters in the world. Manitoba’s emissions have increased by more than eight per cent since 2005 — the third highest growth rate among provinces.

What’s driving much of the increase in Manitoba’s emissions is driving. The number of cars on Manitoba’s roads has grown by almost 50 per cent since 2005, and despite higher fuel efficiency, emissions from vehicles in the province have almost doubled since 1990.

The story is much the same for the city of Winnipeg, where vehicles are responsible for half of all emissions, by far the largest contributor. More than 10,000 vehicles are added to Winnipeg’s roads every year, and with the city’s low density and sprawling growth, we are also driving farther.

Winnipeggers drive a combined 5 1/2 billion kilometres per year, equating to every person over the age of 16 driving alone in a car 26 kilometers every single day. Compounding this, Winnipeg is the only major city in Canada to have lower public-transit ridership today than it did 20 years ago (pre-pandemic).

The City of Winnipeg has a comprehensive Climate Action Plan that targets a 20 per cent reduction in emissions by 2030 (relative to 2011 levels). It targets a 17 per cent reduction in transportation-related emissions, achieved in part by increasing public-transit use and tripling the number of people who walk and bike.

So, how do we change 60 years of urban planning centred around traffic management, and begin to promote more sustainable transportation options? Coun. Matt Allard recently introduced two innovative ideas that could be part of a larger transformation.

His first proposal introduces an ‘induced demand analysis’ for all new transportation projects. Induced demand is a concept that can best be described as “you get what you build for.” When cities build more roads, people drive more cars. A groundbreaking study from 2011 titled “The Fundamental Law of Road Congestion” demonstrated that there is a one-to-one correlation between a city’s road capacity and the number of kilometres residents drive.

The phenomenon has many contributing factors. Increased road capacity initially reduces commute times, causing people to alter their driving patterns, either route, frequency, or time of travel, to take advantage of the higher capacity network. Greater convenience results in fewer people using public transportation and promotes more trips by car.

It also inspires driving farther distances, which keeps cars on the road for longer times and stimulates urban sprawl, which further promotes an automobile-centred lifestyle as longer distances make alternate transportation options ineffective. These factors all work together to increase the number of cars on the road, which invariably grows to meet the road capacity, no matter how much was built. This leads to demand for even more roads, creating an unwinnable cycle.

Allard’s proposal may allow us to understand how our road-building choices will be affected by induced demand, helping us to make smarter choices, reducing road construction spending, traffic congestion, the amount we collectively drive and, in turn, greenhouse gas emissions.

The second motion introduced by Allard is to make the “open streets,” which were so popular during the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic, a permanent fixture in the city. His proposal is to close 15 streets to vehicles for six months per year. This move would represent a transformational shift in our traditional priorities by taking vehicle space and creating places for people.

Open streets such as Wellington Crescent and Wolseley Avenue saw high levels of use, regularly accommodating up to two hundred cyclists and almost as many pedestrians every hour. It changed how we experience our city. If the motion passes, open streets could provide the backbone for a new, connected, active-transportation network that fundamentally transforms how we move around.

It would be a progressive and bold move for Winnipeg, one that might inspire us to think differently about our city and encourage investment in more sustainable transportation options such as walking, biking and transit.

We have learned from the pandemic that change takes a collective effort. As we emerge from the crisis, we have an opportunity to channel this unprecedented global collaboration to focus on the even greater challenge moving toward us.

These types of local, progressive ideas, implemented in cities across the world, can create a powerful cumulative effect that moves us toward flattening the global-warming curve, so our children and grandchildren inherit a future from us.

*Brent Bellamy is creative director at Number Ten Architectural Group.*