Uber, Lyft creating more congestion, not reducing it: study

CAR TROUBLE

https://www.winnipegfreepress.com/world/car-trouble-490052261.html

THE explosive growth of Uber and Lyft has created a new traffic problem for major U.S. cities and ride-booking options such as Uber Pool and Lyft Line are exacerbating the issue by appealing directly to customers who would otherwise have taken transit, walked, biked or not used a ride-hail service at all, according to a new study.

The report by Bruce Schaller, author of the influential study Unsustainable?, which found ride-hailing services were making traffic congestion in New York City worse, constructs a detailed profile of the typical ride-hail user and issues a stark warning to cities: make efforts to counter the growth of ride-hail services, or surrender city streets to fleets of private cars, creating a more hostile environment for pedestrians and cyclists and ultimately making urban cores less desirable places to live.

Schaller concludes that where private ride options such as Uber X and Lyft have failed on promises to cut down on personal driving and car ownership— both of which are trending up— pooled ride services have lured a different market that directly competes with subway and bus systems, while failing to achieve significantly better efficiency than their solo alternatives. The result: more driving overall.

Ride-hailing has added about 9.2 billion vehicle kilometres to nine major urban areas over six years, the report says, and the trend is “likely to intensify” as the popularity of the services surges. (The study notes that total ride-hailing trips in New York increased 72 per cent from 2016 to 2017 and 47 per cent in Seattle over that time. Revenue data from the D.C. Department of For-Hire Vehicles showed the ride-hailing industry’s growth quadrupled in the District from late 2015 to 2017.) The nine cities studied were New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Boston, Washington, Miami, Philadelphia, San Francisco and Seattle.

Schaller found that while options such as Uber X add 2.8 new vehicle kilometres for each kilometre of personal driving they eliminate, the inclusion of options such as Uber-Pool and Lyft Line adds to traffic at only a marginally lower rate: 2.6 new kilometres for every kilometre of personal driving reduced.

The findings are based on published trip mileage data and the companies’ own claims about the share of solo and pooled rides.

“Shared rides add to traffic because most users switch from non-auto modes,” the report says. “In addition, there is added mileage between trips as drivers wait for the next dispatch and then drive to a pickup location. Finally, even in a shared ride, some of the trip involves just one passenger (e.g., between the first and second pickup).”

Schaller synthesizes data from surveys in eight cities and the state of California to conclude 60 per cent of ride-hail users would have otherwise used transit, walked or biked, or stayed home were it not for the availability of services such as Uber and Lyft.

“It’s people getting out of the bus and metro getting into sedans,” said Schaller, a former deputy commissioner for traffic and planning at the New York City department of transportation.

Lyft disputed Schaller’s findings, pointing to its own sustainability efforts, its urban mobility focus and claims from passengers who report giving up their cars — though the locations where those reductions took place were not immediately clear.

“We strongly disagree with Schaller’s claims regarding shared rides,” Lyft spokeswoman Campbell Matthews said. “Since Lyft’s founding, we’ve been focused on increasing car occupancy and eliminating the need for car ownership. That focus has paid off.

“Just last year, over 250,000 Lyft passengers gave up their personal cars because of the availabilityof ride-share,” Matthews said. “We are continuingto focus on our goals by redesigning the Lyft app to integrate with public transit and introducing bike and scooter sharing to the Lyft platform.

We are committed to ensuring passengers have access to a spectrum of transportation options that serve our cities best.”

Uber said in a statement that it supports several of the policies Schaller proposes, including the expansion of dedicated bus and bike lanes and congestion pricing. The company argued that contrary to Schaller’s conclusions, Uber saved more than 500 million global vehicle kilometres in 2017 by shifting riders to its pool service.

Schaller never argued, however, that pool services were less efficient than solo rides. He concluded that at the rate the services are expanding— and with appeals to transit users — the effects of any such reductions are negligible and the growth is untenable.

Schaller’s conclusions cast doubt on notions that ride-hail services will ultimately reduce private vehicle ownership and challenge arguments that they do not compete with mass transit. Based on a profile of the average ride-hail user, he concludes that the more services such as Uber Express Pool resemble transit, the more they will draw riders away from urban rail and bus systems, resulting in an increasing number of transit users turning to private cars to get around. But sedans don’t have the capacity to match the modes they are pulling from, he says.

“When you look at the numbers, what you see is that what is more sharing for them is less sharing overall,” Schaller said.

Stewart Schwartz, executive director of the pro-transit Coalition for Smarter Growth, pointed to another one of the report’s conclusions. Lyft says that today, a third of its rides in major markets are shared. The company has outlined a goal to make half of its ride shared by 2022.

“Even if Lyft managed to meet its 50 per cent shared ride goal, you still increase (vehicle kilometres travelled) by 120 per cent,” Schwartz said, citing the report’s finding that 50 per cent shared-ride adoption would still add about 3.5 vehicle kilometres to roads, or a 120 per cent increase in driving overall.

Schwartz called the conclusions “pretty sobering.”

Schaller’s analysis is “one of the first studies to really look at (Uber and Lyft’s) impacts from across a national spectrum,” said Adam Stocker, a staff researcher with the Transportation Sustainability Research Center, who is part of a team pursuing a study on the impacts of Uber and Lyft across three North American cities.

But individual cities face challenges in discerning how the findings apply to them, Stocker said, because of a dearth of available data from the companies themselves.

“The main limitation of it is that mainly due to the sample size, the city-by-city differences, some of that detail doesn’t stand out because nine cities were put together,” he said. “Due to data limitations... you can oftenmiss a lot of the nuance in the usage or the impacts between cities themselves.”

Part of his team’s focus is to discern how the “mode replacement profile” differs between those who use the pooled options versus solo riders. He wouldn’t give away any of the findings, but suggested that the portrait of a pool user aligns closely with those who use transit services.

“My overall sense from reading the entire report is this is the exact reason why we need more data transparency on this,” Tomer said. “My hunch is... the immediate reactions from both Uber and Lyft... They’re gonna suggest, well, ‘This isn’t what our data says.’ And the reality is we don’t know.”

— Washington Post